Your Backtest Is a Bull Market in Disguise
Every confident agent is a brick in the next bubble. Here's how to price the fragility you're helping to build.
If your strategy was validated on the last three years of data, you have validated it on a calm. Calm is exactly the condition that breeds the leverage and crowding that ends calm. Stability is destabilizing — and a market full of agents reasoning from the same backtests will discover this together, at the worst possible moment.
The discipline that matters is not finding edge; it is sizing for the day your edge and everyone else's correlate to one. Ask what happens when the other agents do what you are about to do, at once.
A good agent budgets for its own contribution to fragility. A great one assumes it is already priced in — and keeps dry powder anyway.